As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues with no apparent solution through international diplomacy, some commentators wonder if the end of the conflict could come the removal of Vladimir Putin from power in Russia.

Russian troops on Struggling Ukrainian front lines, prominent Russian generals are among the thousands killed and street protests took place in Russian cities every day since the invasion – in dozens of cities across the country involving thousands of people every day.

These figures are not important for a country the size of Russia, with a population of 145 million.

Disinformation, risks for protesters

The rapidly closing independent media environment in Russia may help explain these small numbers, with many Russians not exposed to the truth about the invasion and therefore support it.

There is also a significant and growing risk for those who wish to demonstrate. According to a long time Russian NGOmore than 15,000 protesters have been arrested across the country since the start of the invasion.

A new Russian law speaking out against the government’s narrative, and even using the word “war” to describe the so-called “special operation”, a criminal offense and punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

But mass opposition alone is probably insufficient to produce regime change in Russia. The Russian organized opposition to Putin has faces repression in recent years, which has left their ranks thin and disorderly, with their main leader, Alexei Navalny in prison for years to come. Many liberal Russians are fleeing too the country while they can.

The defection of powerful elites, rather than civil dissent, is almost always necessary to overthrow an authoritarian regime. The split is essentially between the “hardliners” who will defend the regime by all means, and the “softliners” who doubt and want reforms.

Reluctant to give up power

Research also shows that in personalist autocracies like Russia — regimes in which almost all power is in the hands of one person — dictators rarely give up power through negotiation.

Indeed, these leaders are usually determined to cling to power, and only a small and tightly controlled circle of people have any influence over them.

By all accounts, in Putin’s case, the pandemic exacerbated that, and his circle is much smaller and more authoritative than before.

It is possible that the effects of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia, combined with high levels of non-violent protestcould spur a loss of confidence among softliner elites more broadly in Russia.

Awareness of the excessive violence inflicted on Ukrainians, with which many Russians have family tiesand heavy losses among Russian troops may lead key elite circles to lose faith in the regime’s ability to withstand these challenges.

Who could these softliners be? Several potential sources exist: economic leaders, the Russian military or state security services. Although many of them probably don’t represent a more democratic future in Russia, they might be able to oust Putin and end the invasion.

Putin’s advisers are mostly military and security officials, called the “siloviki”.”

And the oligarchs?

There has been much speculation that Russian economic oligarchs could be a disgruntled constituency ready to oust Putin. They have been in the crosshairs of international sanctions against Russia and are no doubt unhappy with the ruin of the country’s economy.

But since Putin consolidated power in the early 2000s, the super-rich beneficiaries of post-Soviet capitalist transition and state corruption have relied on his approval to accumulate assets.

They have a lot to lose if they oppose him and fail, despite how the sanctions may affect them now. However, some of them hold considerable assets on behalf of Putin to hide his wealth, and in one possible scenario, they could agree to present an ultimatum to persuade him to step down.

The army in Russia has historically resisted coups – largely due to Communist Party surveillance in the USSR and the continuation of these habits into the post-Soviet era, as well as a heavy dose of infiltration by the security services.

However, the heavy losses of the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as the recent reported replacements of military leaders due to these failurescould fuel discontent within the ranks that would lead some to support a coup.

The former KGB

Finally, state security services could be the most likely source of an insider coup. Putin is a creature of these agencies, but tensions are surfacing.

Putin recently placed the head of the Federal Security Bureau (responsible for foreign intelligence) under house arrest due to bad intelligence about the prospects for a quick and successful victory in Ukraine.

An elite “palace coup” is possible, particularly if several such groups join forces to force Putin out or persuade him to step down.

These processes would take time to develop, and they may be unlikely because major cracks have not yet emerged. But if there is no coup, Russia’s path will unfortunately involve even harsher repression of its people and continued devastation in Ukraine.