Heart of the Primaries 2022, Democrats-Issue 31 – Ballotpedia News
July 14, 2022
In this issue: Three-way Oregon gubernatorial race and super PAC spending in MD-04
Oregon’s three-way race for governors
Oregon’s gubernatorial election includes three former state lawmakers, two of whom are running as major party candidates and one, a former Democrat, is running as unaffiliated. Recent polls show a competitive three-way race.
The Republican State Leadership Committee commissioned a poll of likely voters showing Christine Drazan (R) with 32%, Tina Kotek (D) with 31% and Betsy Johnson (unaffiliated) with 24%. The margin of error (MOE) was +/- 3.9 percentage points.
An internal poll of Johnson’s campaign likely voters showed Kotek at 33%, Johnson at 30% and Drazan at 23%, with an MOE of +/-4 percentage points.
The only independent poll that FiveThirtyEight reports are from May, showing Drazan with 30%, Kotek with 28% and Johnson with 19% among likely voters. The MOE was +/- 4.3 percentage points.
Kotek was first elected to the State House in 2006 and served as president from 2013 until her resignation in January. Johnson, who served in the Legislature as a Democrat, was first elected to the Senate in 2006 and resigned in December 2021. Drazan was elected to the State House in 2018 and served as Minority Leader from 2019 to 2021. Drazan resigned in January.
Guns and homelessness are two issues in the race. Willamette Week wrote of the candidates’ responses to a question about gun policy:
When WW asked last week what policies the candidates would support to prevent mass shootings, they offered different proposals. Kotek said she would advocate “common sense gun safety, including banning ghost guns, banning teenagers from buying assault weapons, and requiring background checks for all gun purchases. Drazan said she supports “dedicated funding to strengthen school safety measures and fully fund mental health services.”
Johnson’s response was surprise – she wanted “stricter background checks and raising the age to purchase certain firearms to 21.”
According Willamette Weekit was “the first time in her [Johnson’s] political career” that she said “she would support some gun control.
In a campaign ad on homelessness, Johnson said, “The Democrats are right. We need compassion, services and housing. But the Republicans are also right. We should expect personal accountability and more tent cities.
Kotek emphasizes the creation of housing and shelters. Kotek’s campaign website also calls for “[cleaning] waste that accumulates in the camps by partnering with local governments and homeless people to provide sanitation services to these temporary camps.
R. Leon Noble (L) is also running in the general election. Three race forecasters view the Nov. 8 election as either Lean Where Probably Democrat.
Approval updates: Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton weigh in on House primaries
We wrote last week that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) endorsed Andy Levin over Haley Stevens in Michigan’s incumbent 11th congressional district primary against incumbent. On July 7, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton endorsed Stevens.
In Michigan’s 2016 Democratic presidential primary, Sanders beat Clinton 49.8% to 48.3%.
We also wrote last week about mentions in Vermont’s US House primary. On July 6, Sanders endorsed Becca Balint.
Super PACs focus on Israel’s spending on Edwards and Ivey in MD-04
Two super PACs focused on Israeli politics are spending on different candidates in Maryland’s 4th congressional district primary.
The United Democracy Project, affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), has spent $3 million to support former Prince George County prosecutor Glenn Ivey and oppose former US Representative Donna Edwards. J Street Action Fund will spend $600,000 to support Edwards and oppose Ivey.
An ad from the United Democracy Project read, “Donna Edwards had a bad reputation for voter service.” He quoted an Inside Gov memo: “Edwards has been ranked among the least effective members of Congress. Last death among all Democrats.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D) responded to the announcement in a video last month, saying Edwards “was one of the most effective members of Congress” and that she “had beaten…for jobs and investments in her community, to help voters in need, and to deliver results.The video became an Edwards campaign ad.
Edwards represented the 4th congressional district from 2008 to 2017.
The AJ Street ad criticizes Ivey’s support of AIPAC, stating that “he’s taking money from a group supporting 109 Republicans who tried to overturn Biden’s election.”
AIPAC said earlier this year, “We have friends who are pro-choice and pro-life, those who are liberal on immigration and those who want to tighten our borders, and yes, those who are strongly in disagreement over issues surrounding the 2020 presidential election. … Now is not the time for the pro-Israel movement to become selective of its friends.
According to data from Open Secrets, United Democracy Project spent $15.8 million this cycle, all of which went to support or oppose Democratic candidates. So far, Open Secrets has recorded $349,000 in expenses from the J Street Action Fund.
United Democracy Project says it is “composed of American citizens – Democrats, Republicans and Independents – united in the belief that America’s partnership with our democratic ally Israel benefits both countries.”
J Street says it “organizes pro-Israel, pro-peace Americans to promote American policies that embody our deeply held Jewish and democratic values and that help make the State of Israel a democratic homeland for the Jewish people. “.
The primary is July 19.
Iwamoto challenges Hawaii House President Saiki to a rematch
Kim Coco Iwamoto challenges State House Speaker Scott Saiki in the Hawaii House of Representatives District 25 primary. This is a rematch from the last cycle – in the 2020 Democratic Primary for District 26, Saiki defeated Iwamoto 51% to 49%.
Saiki was first elected to the State House in 1994. Iwamoto was a member of the State Board of Education from 2006 to 2011.
Development was a major issue in the race. Hawaii News Now wrote that the neighborhood, which includes downtown Honolulu, “has evolved from a semi-industrial area to a growing residential area.”
Saiki said, “Some of my biggest accomplishments were actually projects started by residents of our community. …Seven years ago when we hired a private company that had claimed ownership of our community’s roads.
Iwamoto said Saiki had not done enough for the community in his 28 years in office. Iwamoto proposes a surcharge on vacant units and “[using] this revenue to subsidize emergency housing vouchers so that we can house our homeless neighbors and also use this resource to… build more affordable housing.
The primary is August 13.
Dane County Democratic Party Chairman Sabor challenges incumbent La Follette for Wisconsin secretary of state
Dane County Democratic Party Chairwoman Alexia Sabor challenges incumbent Doug La Follette in Wisconsin’s August 9 secretary of state primary.
La Follette was first elected in 1974 and served one term before unsuccessfully running for Lieutenant Governor in 1978. He was re-elected Secretary of State in 1982 and has held that position ever since. Sabor has chaired the Dane County Democratic Party since 2019.
According to Associated Press‘ Todd Richmond, “The stakes are high for the sleepy office because Republicans want to move election oversight from the state election commission to the secretary of state, following the model of more than 30 other states. Democrats fear lest it allow Republicans to unduly influence the certification of Wisconsin’s elections, particularly the 2024 presidential race.”
La Follette said: “People know who [I am]. The stakes are simple. Who has the best chance of winning in November? I am that candidate. According to Richmond, La Follette also “not[ed] he was the only Democrat to retain statewide office in 2010 and 2014.” La Follette’s campaign website says he “struggled against the corrupting influence of big money on politics “.
Sabor said, “We are really missing an opportunity with the seat to push back on the things that the Republican legislature was doing that I think is hurting Wisconsin voters. … The current secretary of state doesn’t really communicate on issues affecting Wisconsin voters. Sabor says it would “help Wisconsin residents better understand their rights and responsibilities as citizens and how they can become more engaged in civic life.”
At the Democratic Party convention from June 25 to 26, WisPolitics.com conducted a mock poll on various races. Of the 373 delegates who voted, 68% voted for Sabor and 32% voted for La Follette.
Competitiveness data: Kansas and Missouri
Kansas and Missouri hold primaries on August 2. We’ve analyzed some numbers to see how competitive the primaries will be compared to recent election cycles.
Kansas
Notes on how these numbers were calculated:
- Candidates by constituency: divide the total number of candidates by the number of constituencies holding elections.
- Quarters open: divide the number of constituencies without incumbents by the number of constituencies holding elections.
- Disputed primaries: divide the number of major party primaries by the number of possible primaries.
- Holders of contested primaries: divides the number of incumbents in the primaries by the number of re-election candidates in the given election cycle.